International Conference on Information and Knowledge Technology

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A Foresight Approach to Cyber Threats Identification and Scenario Planning

Authors :

MAHDI OMRANI¹ Masoud Shafiee² Siavash Khorsandi³

1- Amirkabir University of Technology 2- Amirkabir University of Technology 3- Amirkabir University of Technology

Keywords :

Cyber threats،foresight،key factor،cross-effects analysis،scenario

Abstract :

Cyberattacks impose a significant economic and operational burden on the critical infrastructure of countries. Recent advances in attacker tactics have increased the diversity of cyber threats. As a result, proactively anticipating emerging cyber threat scenarios is essential to strengthening organizational resilience. This research aims to systematically develop future scenarios of organizational cyber threats using futures studies methods. First, a comprehensive content analysis of the existing literature was conducted to identify the dimensions of cyber threats; the result of this process consists of six dimensions, including Actors, Methods, Targets, Consequences, Features, and Defense, and 27 components, which were validated by expert consensus. Then, a cross-effects analysis was conducted using MicMac software to measure the dependencies and level of influence of key factors. These factors were categorized into eight areas. Using qualitative input from an expert panel and the Scenario Wizard software, several plausible cyber threat scenarios were synthesized and developed. The analysis shows that organized threat actors, with primarily political and economic motivations, use methods such as ransomware and social engineering attacks to target servers and network equipment, and operate with the aim of disrupting application and protocol layer services. The findings highlight active defense as a key mechanism to counter cyber threats. This research provides a structured foresight framework to guide strategic cybersecurity planning and related policy development.